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Credibility weighting sandbox

Adjust the inputs behind the risk model. The sliders call the same credibility functions used by the analysis page, without hitting an API or database.

1 · Credibility blend

Slide between own experience and the benchmark

live model

The credibility estimate blends the observed rate with the expected benchmark. More exposure raises Z, so the model puts more weight on the company's own experience.

Expected claims

1.9

benchmark x exposure

Credibility Z

22%

weight on own data

Estimate

4.6 /100

credibility-weighted rate

Credibility breakdown

Synthetic establishment · Selected benchmark · 60 employees

benchmark 3.2
own data 9.8
estimate 4.6

rate per 100 FTE — the estimate is pulled toward whichever side has the data

Own rate

9.8/100

Benchmark

3.2/100

Cred. estimate

4.6/100

Credibility Z — weight on own data22%
trust the benchmarkE = 1.9 claimstrust the company

Only 22% credibility — too thin to trust on its own; the estimate barely leaves the benchmark. It reads Insufficient despite the raw rate.

2 · Credibility speed

Exposure and pooling history make Z climb

Bühlmann K

Higher-frequency classes build expected claims faster. Pooling more years also raises exposure, which lets small firms earn credibility without changing the underlying math.

K from book

7.8

12 establishments

Book spread

0.25

VHM estimate

Z by pooled history

60 employees

Yr 1
19%
Yr 2
32%
Yr 3
41%

The K estimate is read from the synthetic book with the same `estimateK` function used by the analysis. If the synthetic variance collapses, the chart uses the model's default K so the Z bars still show the pooling effect.

3 · What it costs

Credibility changes the premium story

illustrative

Manual premium is payroll times the manual rate. The e-mod multiplies that premium. Comparing a naive observed rate ratio to the credibility-weighted e-mod shows why one bad small-firm year should not automatically drive the full surcharge.

Manual premium

$50,400

before e-mod

Credibility-weighted e-mod

1.12

Z = 17%

Rate-ratio premium

$86,625

unadjusted ratio 1.72

Credibility-weighted e-mod premium

$56,581

delta $6,181

Manual rates are class-code-specific, so this is illustrative. The useful comparison is rate-ratio premium versus credibility-weighted e-mod premium.